Iowa and Beyond

Some brief, last minute predictions:

Ron Paul is strongest and most popular though mid-January 2012, and to a lesser extent, through February 1. After February 7, he will lose steam. Nonetheless, it seems he keeps fighting at least until August and possibly right up to the election with a potential Third Party run.

Rick Santorum’s best days run from December 25 through January 15, with a special boost just after the Iowa caucuses. There is another bump for him, but not as strong, from January 26 through February 3. March to mid-April brings lots of shifts and changes and bumps and bruises, and from mid-April onward it is all downhill. Any hope of being second on the ticket will be crushed in July and August.

Newt Gingrich may do better in Iowa than expected which will keep him pumped up until his fantasies die in New Hampshire. There may also be a brief boost in Florida (January31) with some renewed vigor and bloviation through February 22. In March and April his candidacy completely disintegrates.

Mitt Romney does well in Iowa but may share the winnings with Paul and Santorum. He has a very strong win in New Hampshire.  South Carolina and Florida are disappointing, but he remains very aggressive throughout January and February and regains his strong momentum from mid-February onward, winning Super Tuesday (March 6) decisively. May is likely to be his official crowning as nominee.

Syrian Upheaval

As the world looks on, Syrians are continuing to defy their ruthless president and demand his ouster. The anti-government uprising began in early 2011, along with other manifestations of the Arab Spring, but the clash with government forces has dramatically escalated in the past month, including vicious attacks on protesters with casualties mounting into the thousands. A growing outcry has been building from nations across the globe, including the Arab League, who is sending in observers with hopes of quelling some of the violence. Fears of a Syrian civil war abound.

With humanity once again moving into a Mars retrograde period, we have cause for concern. These several-month periods that come every two years, during which Mars moves very slowly back and forth across a section of the zodiac, often bring with them an increase in conflict and military engagement in numerous countries. The current Mars transit will station at 23Virgo05 in late January 2012 before turning retrograde and stationing again in April 2012 at 3Virgo40. The chart of Syrian President Bashir Assad is greatly agitated by this strengthening Mars activity due to his numerous planets in Virgo and Pisces and the progressions that are activating them.

Born during the Uranus/Pluto conjunction of 1965, with it playing very prominently in his natal chart conjunct the Sun and opposite both the Moon and Saturn, Assad carries within him the profound intensity, obsessive desire for power, rebellious spirit, and strong will of that historical aspect.  Currently, his progressed Uranus (18Virgo05) and progressed Pluto (17Virgo41) have moved into a several-year, one-degree-orb conjunction with the natal Sun (18Virgo24), while progressed Mars (17Sagittarius) is presently square progressed Pluto from September 2011 through February 2013, and soon to be in square with progressed Uranus from April 2012 through August 2013, and, finally, in square with the natal Sun, from September 2012 through March 2014. This suggests significant brutality, aggression, and a fierce hold on power from late 2011 through at least early 2014.

In addition, the three crossings of Mars in late 2011 and the first half of 2012 over these configurations are guaranteed to bring into full flower Assad’s latent ruthlessness and willingness to use all force available to squash any opposition. We have just witnessed the first crossing, roughly from December 12th to December 25th, during which the recent savagery probably reached its zenith with Syrian government forces using heavy weapons and tanks against unarmed protesters. The next crossing of Mars over these fateful degrees will come during the second half of February 2012, although the Mars station at 23 Virgo is close enough to keep the pot simmering through January and early February. The final crossing will come from May 31 through June 9, 2012.

Unfortunately, we do not have a birth time for Assad which would help to pinpoint the exact timing of another very significant set of aspects. Assad’s progressed Moon will be conjunct progressed Mars and square progressed Pluto, progressed Uranus, and natal Sun, successively, over a four-month period. This is likely to occur from March through June 2012, plus or minus up to six months. It is certainly possible that we are now in the midst of this four-month period, which will be another huge activation of the very volatile, aggressive, and unrelenting progressed Uranus/progressed Pluto/natal Sun square to progressed Mars.

Due to the fact that there is more than one suggested chart for Syrian independence, using any of them with any certainty is impossible. But we do have the always-accurate Spring Equinox chart of 2011, drawn for Damascus, which offers significant indication of the current power struggle between Assad and his rebellious and oppressed citizens. This chart became active on March 21, 2011, and continues to be potent until the next Spring Equinox in 2012. In it, Pluto (7Capricorn24) sits within 22 minutes of the Ascendant (7Capricorn46), hovering very close to that sensitive point from late March through mid-May 2011 and moving to cross it in December 2011 through mid-January 2012. The Pluto/Ascendant conjunction in this chart describes a fierce power struggle throughout the year, with it being most intense during the times when Pluto is closest to the Ascendant by transit, exactly what we have seen in Syria. We are now in the final ferocious period through mid-January 2012.

Thus, Assad’s chart shows the likelihood of a ferocious aggressiveness through early 2014, not excluding military action (Mars) in some form, to continue his oppression of the Syrian population or possibly as a way of uniting the people behind him against an external foe. This trend is particularly potent between September 2011 and June 2012 due to the Mars retrograde period and Assad’s progressed Moon. Despite some minimal containment of him by the international community due to transiting Saturn sesquiquadrate his Saturn from December 20, 2011, through March 14, 2012, and conjunct his Venus in early December 2011, late March through April 3, 2012, and again in early September 2012, the long-term indications are that he will maintain a tight and brutal hold on his people for at least the next few years.

Yuletide Escapades

‘Tis the season to be jolly, according to the song. Alas, neither death, nor political gamesmanship, nor thuggish dictators, nor wild weather are willing to pause in deference to the calendar. This year, in particular, December has brought any number of unexpected jolts to the unfolding of events, each demanding attention.

To begin with, after negotiating a bipartisan compromise agreeing to extend the payroll tax holiday and unemployment insurance for two months, the House Republicans suddenly pulled the plug on the deal just as the Senate was about to adjourn. Although many in the House Republican caucus opposed extending this tax cut only a month ago, now they are demanding that it be extended not for two months but for a full year. Moreover, the House leadership has refused to bring the legislation to a vote, knowing it would pass, and has instead used various procedural machinations to thwart it. Unless this is resolved by the New Year, 160 million Americans will get a tax hike at a time they and the American economy can ill afford it.

Speaker John Always-Seems-Slightly-Drunk Boehner is being pilloried from all sides for his maladroit Yuletide switch engineered to placate the rabid partisans on the Right.  His chart (11/17/49, Columbus, Ohio) is under some stressful aspects this entire week through December 23, with transiting Mars moving slowly across his Saturn (17Virgo50) and transiting Saturn squaring his Jupiter (27Capricorn40). This difficult confluence begins to lift as of late in the evening on December 23. Some face-saving resolution is possible thereafter.

Meanwhile, Christmas Day brings Jupiter back into direct movement, and with it a return back across its square to President Obama’s Jupiter (00Aquarius52) and then sextile his Venus (1Cancer47), thereby giving him an upbeat, optimistic period from December 25 through January 23. This would seem to be another indication that the payroll tax imbroglio will be settled right around Christmas. It also suggests other issues will go well for the president, including strong poll numbers, during this period.

But surprises and sudden transformational events are also on the president’s plate during December and January, indicated by the transit of Uranus square to his Venus, and as already evidenced by circumstances both domestic and foreign. The stunning shift of House Republicans on the payroll tax is one such example. The unexpected death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Ill and the resultant concern over destabilization in that country is another.  And the growing violence in Syria is a third, as a slow-moving Mars, from December through February, activates the very volatile and aggressive configuration of progressed Mars (16 Sagittarius), natal Sun, natal Uranus, natal Pluto, and progressed Uranus (15 to 18 Virgo) in President Bashir Assad’s chart and stirs up his most aggressive and angry tendencies. This will be especially evident from December 19 through December 25 and again from February 16 through February 23.

Thus, we can expect the holiday for President Obama to be hopeful and enjoyable but with some significant bumps along the way, and we can relax in knowing the Republican Grinches who are trying to steal Christmas will be thwarted.

Happy Holidays!

 

Ron Paul: Possible Spoiler

There is a refreshing clarity and consistency about Ron Paul. His unique contributions in the debates and on the campaign stump remain uncontaminated by religious in-your-face fervor or hypocritical pandering, qualities otherwise pervasive these days in the Republican nominating process.  Paul is a slightly cranky, non-compromising libertarian who wants to downsize the entire government, believing passionately that every one of its programs is an intrusion on personal liberty. He wants to bring home all our troops and drastically shrink the military, abolish foreign aid, end the Patriot Act, abolish the Federal Reserve while putting us back on the gold standard, and end income tax, Medicare, Social Security, and public education.

His total embrace of personal responsibility and freedom and his utter disdain for what he likes to call the “nanny state” appeals to the original pioneer spirit that still lives in the American psyche. Those who came to this country from foreign shores often came to get away from controlling, oppressive governments, and that narrative still permeates the life-blood of many Americans.  But the modern world, inundated with technology and transformed by globalization, is far more complicated than it was in the days when you could simply find some unsettled land and make a life for yourself. There is a reason people decided to put their money together and elect representatives who would decide how best to spend it for the greater good.  There is a reason why publicly-funded education, available to all children, and publicly-funded infrastructure help the entire society to prosper. There is a reason that a publicly-organized health insurance program and a retirement fund for the elderly were created. And so on. Although the freedom and return to simplicity that Paul calls for are alluring, a more penetrating study of what his ideals would actually create in the real world should give us pause. Unfortunately, understanding the ramifications of the policies espoused by today’s political leaders is becoming a lost art among the citizenry.

At the moment, Ron Paul is tied for first place with Newt Gingrich in Iowa. For the most part, however, the Republican race for the nomination is being seen as a battle between former Speaker Gingrich and former Governor Mitt Romney. But a close look at Ron Paul’s birth chart suggests that he is likely to be in the race one way or another throughout 2012. This portends three possibilities: he will unexpectedly win the nomination; he will be selected as a vice presidential candidate; or, what seems the most likely, he will run on a third party ticket.

We do not have a birth time for Ron Paul, and so the dates for the progressions I will discuss could be off by as much as 6 months. Nonetheless, the concurrence of several aspects suggests more than life-as-usual for a representative in the US Congress. Perhaps most striking is that Paul’s progressed Sun has just moved into a conjunction with natal Mars (12Scorpio41) through the end of 2012, while almost simultaneously, converse progressed Sun will be quincunx natal Mars. This indicates that he will be very aggressive in pursuing his goals and attacking other candidates. We have already begun to see this in his recent campaign ads.

In addition, converse progressed Venus has just moved into a conjunction with natal Pluto (26Cancer28) through October 2012, while progressed Venus moved into a sextile with natal Pluto this past summer, also continuing through October 2012. These latter aspects promise the kind of charisma and attraction that is usually found in high-profile candidates.

Interestingly, Paul’s converse progressed Sun is currently square natal Neptune (13Virgo39), exact in January 2012 and intensifying his expectations and idealism. This is likely to be quashed by the Saturn semi-square during the first week of January, hence disappointing his hopes for a win in Iowa. Moreover, Saturn will return to the semisquare of natal Neptune from February 7 through March 10, suggesting that Paul is not likely to become the GOP nominee. However, the potent Venus and Mars progressions will continue to grow in strength, especially after Saturn’s square to natal Pluto/progressed Venus from March 29 through April 12. This points to the possibility that Ron Paul may decide to run on a Third Party ticket somewhere around May 2012 when he gives up on the GOP nomination and finds its nominee less than stellar.

Primary Follies

One needs a rather robust sense of humor to not be drawn into utter despair while witnessing the Republican presidential nominating process. The blustery and fantasy-laced babble of the candidates has become a pitiful competition in fact-free hyperbole targeted to appeal to and inflame the most ignorant and racist elements of the GOP. The candidates’ sneering, delusional diatribes are completely devoid of the seriousness demanded of the presidency at this dangerous time in our history.

For myself, it is with great sorrow that I watch the collective psychosis known as the Republican base determine who will run for president. It increasingly seems that their support for platitude rather than policy, fear rather than justice, selfishness rather than community, and delusion rather than fact is systematically corroding the integrity and moral fiber of this great nation.

Nonetheless, the primary season is almost upon us, and GOP voters will soon determine who will represent them against their detested, manufactured nemesis, that anti-colonial, Kenyan radical, otherwise known to the reality-based world as President Barack Obama. For now, Newt Gingrich has rocketed to the top of the heap, running in first place in several polls. Gingrich’s best performance and biggest win is likely to be at the January 3 Iowa caucus, at which time transiting Venus will cross his Ascendant (19 Aquarius19). During the first half of January, Newt’s grandiose expectations will know no bounds, with transiting Neptune quincunx his natal Neptune, activating his natal Sun/Moon/Neptune T-Square, the astrological source of his bloviating, self-delusional tendencies.

While Newt’s hopes will be high for the January 10 New Hampshire primary, with transiting Venus aspecting his Sun and Moon that day, Venus will depart just as the polls close, suggesting his disappointment with the actual result. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, will have come out swinging after a passable, but not great, Iowa performance, with transiting Mars opposing his Sun from January 2 through January 5, and seems poised to win big in New Hampshire, due to the transit of Venus square his Moon/Jupiter conjunction on January 11.

As expected, South Carolina will be difficult for Romney, with the Sun opposite his Saturn for that primary on January 21. Gingrich has a Venus quincunx to Venus on January 22, suggesting he will do fairly well, but perhaps not manage as much of a rout as he had hoped. They both are likely to have high expectations for Florida which are disappointed due to strong Venus transits in both charts on the morning on January 31, but with Venus passing by the time the results come in that night. And both candidates will manifest renewed vigor and aggression in early February: transiting Mars will semisquare Gingrich’s Pluto and oppose Romney’s Sun.

Their paths seem likely to diverge around Super Tuesday on March 6. While Romney will be basking in an uplifting and rewarding Jupiter transit square to his Venus from March 3 through March 9, Gingrich will have the Sun square his Saturn from March 6 to March 7, indicating his disappointment and frustration.  It may be that this period is the real beginning of the end for Gingrich’s high hopes. The second half of March brings Saturn square to Newt’s Jupiter, ruler of his Midheaven. The first half of April brings Saturn trine his Sun, activating the natal conjunction. The second half of April brings transiting Saturn sextile his Moon, activating the multi-year waxing progressed Saturn opposition to that sensitive point.

So much focus on Saturn in Gingrich’s chart in March and April suggests a thwarting of his presidential ambitions at that time. On the other hand, by May, Romney will be enjoying a period of contentment and increasing popularity signified by the Venus station as it squares his Sun early in the month, sesquiquadrates his Venus through mid-month, and returns to square his Sun at the end of the month. It seems likely he will have consolidated the nomination by then and begin his face-off with President Barack Obama in earnest.