20th Nov, 2012

A Paradox Unfolds

The simmering pot of tension between Israel and its Arab neighbors has once again boiled over into a war. One is reminded of the old paradox of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object when considering the Middle East. This time, it is a rekindling of the barely-contained violence between Israel and Gaza into full-scale hostilities.

Although many similarities exist in these perennial clashes, there is also an evolving narrative that points to some shifts in the landscape.   In the early years, the Arab neighborhood was no match for the more technologically superior Israel, and her wins were dramatic and quick. In the summer of 2006, however, the Israeli war against Iranian-backed Hezbollah inside of Lebanon was more painful and more protracted than expected and considered more of a “draw” than a win, which more or less translated into a defeat for the hitherto undefeated Israel.

Although Israel continues to retain a huge technological and military advantage against Gaza’s Hamas in the current iteration of this ongoing struggle, there are some notable differences once again. Supplied largely by Iran, Hamas’ rockets are more numerous and reach much further into Israel than previously, some getting as far as Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. In addition, the newly-minted governments of the Arab Spring countries are more vocally supportive of the Palestinians in Gaza than were their predecessors, although none has yet become militarily involved.  On the other hand, Israel now has the Iron Dome, a sophisticated shield against incoming rockets that is about 90% effective. Taken together, these trends raise questions more about the outcome of future conflagrations than of the present clash, as the scales slowly seem to inch toward greater equilibrium.

Despite intensive negotiations for a ceasefire, any cessation of hostilities seems unlikely until at least the last day or two of November, and even that seems optimistic. The planet of sudden upset and a desire to throw off constraining limitations, Uranus, is currently stationary square Israel’s Venus (4Cancer49) and square Netanyahu’s Uranus (4Cancer58). This transit has been active since mid-October and will continue through the first few days of January. It points to the rapidly-escalating and transformative series of events now unfolding. With transiting Mars (4Capricorn) coming to square transiting Uranus (4Aries47) from November 21 through 23, we can expect an increase in violence and turmoil over the next few days.

Additionally, transiting Pluto (8Capricorn) is now in a sesquiquadrate with Israel’s Sun (23Taurus41) from November 11 through December 16, highlighting the increased feeling of a power struggle for survival that always accompanies Pluto’s presence. Transiting Mars will conjunct transiting Pluto on November 26 and 27, strengthening the ferocity of this high-stakes battle and likely adding further vehemence and brutality to the mix.

Although the Mars triggers will pass after November 27, both the Uranus and Pluto aspects will continue for weeks, Pluto to mid-December 2012 and Uranus to early January 2013, thus prolonging the feeling of instability. In January, the Israeli progressed Moon will conjunct the progressed Ascendant (23Sagittarius41), somewhat overlapping the Israeli progressed Moon opposite natal Uranus (24Gemini21) in January through the first 10 days of February. Thus, we may see further unexpected and dramatic events leading to some kind of sudden awakening or resolve during January and early February, leading to altered circumstances in this ongoing clash. The status quo will likely be altered in some significant way by mid-February due to the events of the next two months.

It is possible that circumstances between December 7 and December 17 will not go well for Israel, a period during which we may see that nation forced to restrain its actions. The Saturn transit will oppose the Israeli solar return Ascendant (8Taurus16) at this time, which may be indicative of a brief ceasefire.

In truth, my biggest concern is for the late winter and early spring of 2014, when Uranus, Pluto, Jupiter, and Mars make their very dramatic and potent grand cross around 13 degrees of the cardinal signs. Not only will these impact the US Sun (13Cancer19) and US Moon (27Aquarius12), but they will also stimulate Israel’s Mars (28Leo18), also under a solar arc progressed Uranus conjunct natal Mars, and Iran’s Sun (11Aries06) at that time. It seems possible that the rapidly unfolding and rather wild events of early 2014 may include another, wider Middle Eastern war, one that dwarfs the current hostilities by pulling more countries into the fray. For now, this is only one theory of how these exceptional configurations may manifest, but it will certainly be a highly-charged time to watch.

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